Gameweek 35 Premier League: Best Picks and Safest Teams
With four gameweeks remaining, GW35 runs from Friday 1 May through Monday 4 May. All probabilities below are derived from live UK bookmaker odds — averaged across multiple markets and normalised to remove the overround. The market is the most reliable guide available at this stage of the season.
The KwickPicks Team has spent years running and playing Last Man Standing competitions across the Premier League, Championship, and lower leagues. We write about LMS strategy, fixture analysis, and pick advice to help players at every level survive longer — and win.
GW35 Fixtures Ranked by Win Probability
Every GW35 fixture, ranked by the strongest available pick (home or away) according to the betting markets. Use this as your starting point — pick the highest-probability team you have not yet used.
H = home win · D = draw · A = away win. Probabilities from UK bookmaker markets, normalised.
Tier 1: The Safest Options
Leeds United vs Burnley — Tonight, Fri 1 May
69% home winThe strongest home pick in GW35 according to the markets. Leeds at Elland Road against a Burnley side the bookmakers give just 11% chance of winning. If you have Leeds available, this is the most straightforward pick of the gameweek — but it kicks off tonight, so the deadline is immediate.
Arsenal vs Fulham — Sat 2 May
65% home winThe markets price Arsenal as heavy favourites at home against Fulham. At 65% implied probability, this is a straightforward LMS pick if Arsenal are available in your pool. The one caveat worth checking: team news before Saturday. If Arsenal have midweek European involvement, light rotation is possible — but at 65%, even a rotated Arsenal side are expected to win this comfortably.
Man City (away at Everton) — Mon 4 May
65% away winAway picks are normally to be cautious about in LMS, but when the market prices an away team at 65%, that caution is overridden by the numbers. Everton are given just 15% by the bookmakers — a remarkable vote of no confidence in the home side. If Man City are still in your pool, this is as strong an away pick as you will find this season.
Tier 2: Solid Options if Tier 1 Are Gone
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace — Sun 3 May
58%Bournemouth at home with a 58% implied win probability. A solid Tier 2 pick — not a banker, but a well-supported home favourite. The 23% draw probability is the main risk if draws eliminate in your competition.
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest — Mon 4 May
57%Chelsea at home are priced at 57% by the markets — a significant home favourite despite any recent form concerns. The market is telling you that Forest away at Stamford Bridge is not the straightforward pick it might appear. If Chelsea are available in your pool, this is a credible Monday pick.
What the Market Says to Avoid
- ✕Wolverhampton at home. The market gives Wolves just 27% at home — lower than Sunderland's 45% away win probability. This is one of the worst home picks in the Premier League this gameweek regardless of venue.
- ✕Newcastle at home. 38% home win probability, with Brighton priced at 36% to win away. Essentially a coin toss. Not an LMS-grade pick at either side.
- ✕Everton at home. 15%. The markets have made their view clear — avoid.
The Man United vs Liverpool Question
The headline fixture of GW35. The market prices this as: Manchester United 42%, Draw 25%, Liverpool 32%. United are the slight home favourite — a reflection of Old Trafford's historical impact in this fixture rather than current league position. At 42% for either side, this is not an LMS pick you would choose if better options remain.
If both United and Liverpool are the only teams you have available, United at home is marginally the market-preferred pick — but the draw risk (25%) is significant. Only use this fixture if Tier 1 and Tier 2 options are exhausted.
Pool Management: Three Rounds to Go
After GW35, you have GW36, 37, and 38 remaining.
- →GW38 (the final day) sees all matches kick off simultaneously — no rotation risk, since teams have nothing left to save themselves for. A strong side with a comfortable home fixture is worth holding in reserve for GW38.
- →GW36 and 37 carry the highest rotation risk as European semi-finals and cup finals fall in this window. Check midweek schedules before committing a premium pick to either round.
- →Staying alive is always the priority. Use the highest-probability pick available to you this week.
Make your GW35 pick now
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