Gameweek 35 Premier League: Risky Picks That Could Pay Off
If your Tier 1 options are exhausted, GW35 has several fixtures clustered between 42–50% win probability — picks that are not comfortable, but are defensible. This guide covers what the markets say about each one, and when to consider them.
The KwickPicks Team has spent years running and playing Last Man Standing competitions across the Premier League, Championship, and lower leagues. We write about LMS strategy, fixture analysis, and pick advice to help players at every level survive longer — and win.
The Odds Landscape in GW35
After removing the top picks — Leeds (69%), Arsenal (65%), Man City away (65%), Bournemouth (58%), Chelsea (57%) — what remains in GW35 is a cluster of genuine coin-toss fixtures. The market offers no obvious Tier 1 alternative beyond those five. If they are gone from your pool, you are in risky territory regardless of which way you look.
The picks below are not recommendations to back blindly. They are the best available options in a difficult gameweek, with the market's view on each one.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur — 43%
Villa at home are priced at 43% by the market — the strongest of the remaining options once Tier 1 picks are gone. Spurs away are given 30%, with a 27% draw probability. Villa Park is a difficult ground for travelling sides, and 43% is a workable LMS probability if your alternatives are worse.
When to pick Villa here:
Leeds, Arsenal, Man City, Bournemouth, and Chelsea are all gone from your pool. Villa are your highest-probability remaining option.
Manchester United vs Liverpool — United 42%, Liverpool 32%
The headline fixture of GW35. The market prices United as the slight home favourite at 42% — which will surprise anyone who has been watching Liverpool's season. The derby factor is real: Old Trafford tends to close the gap between the sides regardless of league position, and the market reflects this.
If you have United available and not Liverpool, the market says United is marginally the better pick. If you have Liverpool available and not United, the market puts them at 32% away — lower than their season form might suggest, but derbies are derbies. Neither side represents a comfortable LMS pick. The 25% draw probability makes this fixture particularly dangerous if draws eliminate in your competition.
Derby caveat
Only use this fixture if both Villa and your other Tier 2 options are exhausted. At 42% for the 'better' side, this is a coin toss with significant draw risk.
Brentford vs West Ham — 50% / 25% / 25%
The market has called this an exact 50/50 for home win vs not-home-win. Brentford at home are priced at 50%, with West Ham at 25% and the draw at 25%. This is as close to a genuine coin toss as you will find in the Premier League. The compact Gtech Community Stadium does generate real home advantage — but the numbers say neither side is meaningfully preferred.
Back this only if Brentford are your last remaining option in the pool. At 50% it is defensible; it is not a pick you would choose ahead of any of the Tier 1 or Tier 2 options.
Picks the Market Says to Avoid Entirely
Even as a last resort, some picks are not worth taking:
- ✕Wolverhampton at home (27%). The market gives Wolves just 27% at home — lower than Sunderland's 45% away win probability. If you are considering this fixture, Sunderland away is actually the market-preferred pick. Neither is advisable in LMS.
- ✕Newcastle at home (38%). Brighton away are priced at 36% — almost identical. The market sees no meaningful home advantage here. A 38% probability is not a pick you want to be making in the final rounds of an LMS competition.
- ✕Everton at home (15%). The worst home pick in the division this gameweek. Avoid regardless of circumstance.
The Framework for a Risky GW35 Pick
Back the pick if...
- →Your Tier 1 options (Leeds, Arsenal, Man City, Bournemouth, Chelsea) are all used
- →The pick has at least 40% implied probability
- →You have multiple entries and can split across different fixtures
Do not back the pick if...
- →A Tier 1 or Tier 2 option is available that you have not yet used
- →You are in a small field and elimination would be catastrophic
- →Draws eliminate in your competition and the draw probability is above 25%
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